Not many African countries are willing to publicly declare their support for candidates in the upcoming African Union Commission elections set for February next year.

However, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema has openly committed to backing Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the top continental position.

What prompted Lusaka to make this declaration, and what does it entail for them?

Their calculations reflect the old adage: “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” There are conditions tied to this support.

Kenyan Foreign Policy (KFP) has learned that during a bilateral meeting between President Ruto and President Hichilemain Bujumbura, an agreement was reached whereby Zambia would support Raila’s candidacy, contingent on Nairobi reciprocating by backing Zambia’s bid for the African Development Bank (AfDB).

“Kenya has committed to supporting Zambia’s candidacy for the AfDB in exchange for Raila’s backing,” Clayson Hamasaka, a communications specialist at Zambian State House, told KFP on Friday.

Lusaka has put forth Samuel Maimbo as their candidate, who has also received endorsement from the influential Southern African bloc.

However, Nairobi has yet to announce its commitment to supporting Zambia, and our inquiries to the foreign office for clarification went unanswered.

INTRIGUES

This diplomatic maneuvering comes with its complexities and potential repercussions for any candidate, as the quid pro quo nature of these agreements appears transactional, according to analysts.

For instance, Kenya recently publicised a deal with Ghana during President Ruto’s state visit in April, where Nairobi would support Ghana’s candidacy for the Commonwealth Secretary-General position in exchange for Ghana’s backing of Raila’s bid.

However, Accra has not publicly acknowledged this arrangement. While this promise was ultimately fulfilled with Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey’s election to the position in Samoa, Ghana’s support for Raila is not guaranteed.

With President Nana Akufo-Addo ineligible for a third term in the December elections, a new government will soon be in place.

Zambia may be positioning itself to remind Nairobi of its commitments while trying to deter other nations from seeking Nairobi’s support.

AKINUMWI SUCCESSION

Five candidates have been put forward by their respective countries to succeed the bow-tied and beaming Nigerian Akinwumi Adesina as the next AfDB president.

Notably, South Africa, whose president is a significant voice among African leaders, had his cabinet endorse Swazi Tshabalala for the AfDB presidency in August, creating tension as the Southern African bloc had approved the Zambian candidate just a month earlier.

On the surface, the South African presidency asserts that they respect the collective decision of the community and acknowledge that the final decision lies with the Bank’s shareholders.

This statement implies they are not withdrawing Swazi Tshabalala’s candidacy, which aligns with the continuity of Akinwumi Adesina’s two terms, as she has served as vice-president in charge of finance since 2018 and was appointed senior vice-president in November 2021.

Whether Pretoria, which has significant diplomatic differences with Nairobi, will be displeased when asked to support Raila Odinga remains to be seen.

The ANC-led government in South Africa has clashed with Kenya on various foreign policy issues, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Western Sahara situation, and the recent Palestine-Israel crisis.

There is also speculation among commentators in Kenya regarding the likelihood of South Africa supporting Raila due to his social ties with President Cyril Ramaphosa.

KFP reached out to the South African Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya for clarification on Pretoria’s stance regarding Raila’s candidacy.

He deflected our inquiries, referring us to DIRCO, the ministry responsible for coordinating South Africa’s foreign policy.

At DIRCO, we attempted to contact Chrispin Phiri, the spokesperson for the South African Foreign Minister, but he had not responded by the time of publication.

Senegal, Chad, and Benin have also submitted candidates in anticipation of the May elections in Abidjan, with the deadline for candidacy submission set for January 31.

The board of governors of the bank, comprised of one representative from each member state, will cast their votes during the election.